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Election Poll Update: Debate Night

Eva Ricci, Editor

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– [Debate night – September 26th] – With hours left until the first Presidential debate of 2016, the Polls have drastically changed over the past few days. Updated within the last few hours, the polls now show that Republican candidate, Donald Trump and Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton are in almost a dead tie.

winning

Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

Conducted by FiveThirtyEight, the poll to the left shows that the lead that Hillary Clinton once had over Donald Trump for many months has been greatly diminished and now shows that their numbers are becoming closer and closer.

Reasons as to why the very sudden shift in numbers has occurred, is very much likely a result of tonight’s first Presidential debate that has set politics on the forefront of people’s minds over the past few days. This is especially true considering the many recent news events that occurred over the weekend, sparking controversy and giving the candidates a chance to share their opinions.

Another potential factor contributing to the change in poll numbers may also be a cause of Hillary Clinton’s absence on the campaign trail, as she has been taking a break due to her pneumonia diagnosis.

According to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, “Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump [are at] a virtual dead heat, as she takes 44 percent of American likely voters to his 43 percent, with 8 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein” (Quinnipiac University Polling).

In regards to tonight’s very important first Presidential debate between the two candidates, Quinnipiac University also reports that:

“American likely voters say 41 – 32 percent that Clinton will win tonight’s presidential debate and 84 percent of voters say they plan to watch the highly anticipated showdown. In fact, 55 percent of likely voters nationwide say they are ‘more motivated tha[n] usual’ to vote, while 11 percent say they are less motivated and 33 percent say their motivation is ‘about the same as usual’” (Quinnipiac University Polling).

Regarding the overall Presidential election updated over the weekend, according to another poll conducted by ABC News/Washington Post:

“The survey shows likely voters split 46% for Clinton and 44% for Trump — with 5% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% backing the Green Party’s Jill Stein. That’s well within the poll’s 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

Among a broader group — registered voters — Clinton and Trump are tied at 41%, with Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%” (ABC News/Washington Post).

These sudden changes in numbers and the closeness between the two candidates have made tonight’s upcoming debate more important than ever for both of the candidates. They both will need to take advantage of the attention that the American media and citizens will be giving them, to capitalize on the opportunity to help persuade undecided voters, and perhaps otherwise decided voters to support them in their Presidential campaign.

As tonight’s Presidential debate draws closer by the hour, poll numbers will be shifting drastically over the next few days and following weeks, as it is one of the most important nights for the candidates to date; and everyone is excited to watch.

Watch tonight’s Presidential debate, hosted at Hofstra University in New York, on all major News channel networks tonight at 9pm EST.

 

Sources:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/25/politics/clinton-trump-virtually-tied-poll-debate/index.html

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/09/26/trump-clinton-pre-debate-poll/

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2383

Cover Image from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXJoTGj_IKI

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Election Poll Update: Debate Night